What They Do
Marqeta operates a modern card issuing platform that enables businesses to create and manage payment cards at scale through APIs. Their customers include fintechs, banks, and enterprises who embed card programs into their own products (like DoorDash driver cards or Block's Cash App cards). They make money by taking a small fee on each transaction that flows through their platform.
Investment Thesis
**Scale inflection achieved**: Q4 TPV crossed $100B quarterly threshold for first time, growing 36% YoY with acceleration for three consecutive quarters**Enterprise momentum building**: Signed 3 Fortune 500 customers in 2025 with average deal sizes increasing 20%+ YoY as they successfully shift upmarket**International expansion paying off**: Europe TPV grew 8x from 2022-2025 and now represents mid-teens percentage of total volume, showing meaningful geographic diversificationKey Risks
**Block concentration remains high**: Despite diversification efforts, Block still represents 44% of Q4 TPV, creating customer concentration risk**Margin pressure from renewals**: 2026 gross profit growth faces 7 percentage point headwind from major customer renewals and Block pricing changes**Intense competition**: Operating in crowded payments infrastructure space with well-funded competitors and potential for pricing pressureGrowth Story
Revenue is expected to grow 12-14% in 2026 after 23% growth in 2025, driven by high-20s TPV growth adding ~$100B in volume. The company is successfully diversifying beyond Block with non-Block TPV growing 2x faster, while expanding internationally and moving upmarket to larger enterprise deals with embedded finance use cases.
Profitability Profile
Marqeta hit an inflection point with Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $31M (18% margin) more than doubling YoY, while full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $110M was 3.5x higher than 2024. The company expects to achieve modest GAAP net income of ~$10M in 2026, marking the transition to sustainable profitability despite gross margins remaining thin at 11.2%.
Competitive Position
Marqeta competes in the card-issuing-as-a-service market against players like Galileo (SoFi) and traditional processors, but differentiates through its modern API-first architecture and real-time capabilities. Their competitive moat is strengthening through value-added services (now 7% of gross profit), AI/ML-powered decisioning tools, and comprehensive international capabilities following the TransactPay acquisition.
Recent Momentum
Q4 results were strong with revenue beating estimates by 5.2% and TPV growth accelerating to 36%, the highest in recent quarters. The company demonstrated operating leverage with expenses growing just 4% YoY while gross profit grew 22%, leading to record profitability metrics and validation of their path to sustainable growth.
What Wall Street Thinks
Analysts are likely cautiously optimistic given the strong Q4 results and path to profitability, but concerned about the 2026 growth deceleration (revenue growth expected to slow from 23% to 12-14%) due to major customer renewals and Block pricing headwinds. The successful Block diversification story and international expansion provide positive long-term catalysts.
The Bottom Line
Marqeta has reached a critical inflection point, achieving both scale ($100B+ quarterly TPV) and profitability while successfully diversifying beyond Block, but 2026 will test whether they can maintain growth momentum amid pricing pressures from major customer renewals.
